Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, why did Real Madrid sack Xabi Alonso in January and replace him with a rookie.
Well, by late Wednesday night, the people behind that move could well have exactly what they deserve for their unwise decision-making: a Champions League exit at the quarter-final stage and a season without silverware.
Of course, you should never rule out Los Blancos, especially a wounded Real.
But you have to help yourselves too and, as far as this SBOTOP scribe is concerned, all the Champions League 2026 highlights this week will belong to the German champions elect.
Talking Points
For a start, the Bavarians have a 2-1 advantage heading into the home leg and are full of confidence.
Their victory in the Bernabeu last week was thoroughly deserved as goals either side of half-time from Luis Diaz and Harry Kane did the damage and ended a nine-game winless run against the Spanish giants in the process.
A late strike from Kylian Mbappe has given Real hope as they travel to Germany and the Allianz Arena, a stadium which Bayern have turned into a fortress (even if Real have won three and drawn the other in their last four visits).
That’s because Bayern have lost just one of their last 28 home fixtures in this tournament (won 22, drawn five) and, what’s more, in all competitions have tasted defeat just twice in 44 matches.
The hosts will be without teenage winger Lennart Karl (thigh) and goalkeeper Sven Ulreich (muscle) but otherwise should be at full strength, including Kane who has been managing an injury of late but was rested at the weekend when he was an unused substitute against St Pauli in the Bundesliga.
For Real, their shot-stopper Thibaut Courtois (thigh) and Rodrygo (ACL) are also sidelined through injury, while midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni picked up his third yellow card of the competition in last week’s first leg and is now suspended.
If they are to turn this around, one suspects Real will need Mbappe, the Champions League’s top scorer this term with 14 goals in just 10 games (only three behind the single-season scoring record of 17).
The French captain is a minor doubt after sustaining a facial injury in the latter stages of the draw with Girona in La Liga on Friday night and interim manager
Alvaro Arbeloa will know only too well that their best chances of progression will depend hugely on the devastating frontman.
History
With 13 Real successes, 12 Bayern triumphs and five draws, it could barely be closer.
Two seasons ago they met in the semi-finals with the teams sharing four goals in Bavaria with a double from Vinicius Jr, the second an 83rd minute penalty, arriving either side of two goals in four second half minutes from Leroy Sane and Kane (penalty).
The second leg summed up the mantra of Real in this competition: they just don’t know when they are beaten.
Alphonso Davies had Bayern gearing up for an all-German final before substitute Joselu scored twice in the last seconds (88 and 90+1) to turn it around and seal a 4-3 aggregate success.
Before then, they also met in the semi-finals in 2018 when Real were inspired by Cristiano Ronaldo, despatching Bayern, Juventus and Paris St Germain en route to breaking Liverpool’s hearts in the final with that Gareth Bale goal.
A first leg win at Bayern, secured by goals from Marcelo and Marco Asensio after Joshua Kimmich had put Bayern in front, was followed by a 2-2 draw between the sides in the second leg.
Karim Benzema’s double effectively sealed the tie with Kimmich (again) and James Rodriguez on target for Bayern.
Their very first meeting came in the semi-finals of this competition, then the European Cup, in 1976.
A first leg draw in Madrid saw a Roberto Martinez (not the current Portugal manager) cancelled out by the great Gerd Muller and it was Bayern who prevailed to the final with a 2-0 second leg home win, thanks to a Muller double.
Bayern went onto defeat Saint-Etienne of France to win the trophy for the third successive year.
Betting Tip
I don’t recall ever seeing Real as such underdogs but they are with our Champions League 2026 betting odds.
You can back the Spaniards 1X2 @ 4.55 and Asian Handicap +0.75 @ 2.28.
Bayern, meanwhile, are odds on to win, both 1X2 @ 1.51 and Asian Handicap -1.25 @ 2.08.
A repeat of their most recent meeting in Germany will pay out @ 12.50 with Correct Score 2-2. That would be enough for Bayern to get through but I actually think they will edge the game on the night as well as the tie. Hence my *** tip is Half Time Full Time Home Home @ 2.13.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT)
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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