Valencia vs Real Madrid
Let’s cut straight to the chase: both these sides need the points in La Liga for very different reasons.
Valencia go into the weekend just one point above the drop zone, while Real Madrid are just one point off the summit.
That means there is so much to play for at the Mestalla Stadium on Sunday evening.
Talking Points
Despite it being a topsy turvy start to the year for Los Blancos, they have delivered La Liga 2026 highlights with six wins on the spin, four since the turn of the year.
Last time out, they edged past Rayo Vallecano thanks to a Kylian Mbappe penalty in the 10th minute of stoppage time.
Personally, I stand by my belief that the decision to sack Xabi Alonso last month, and then fill the vacancy with reserve team coach Alvaro Arbeloa, will ultimately see them fall further behind leaders and reigning champions Barcelona (even if he is only in post temporarily).
As if his first week in charge wasn’t embarrassing enough (they were dumped out of the Copa del Rey by the minnows of Segunda Division side Albacete), Arbeloa also saw Real slip out of the top eight in the Champions League.
Of course, they remain a major force and will be expected to go to Valencia and return home with maximum points, even without Jude Bellingham who was forced out of action last weekend with a hamstring injury.
Eder Militao (hamstring) and Vinicius Junior (suspended) are also out but Ferland Mendy (hamstring), Antonio Rudiger (knee) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (thigh) could return this weekend, while Rodrygo faces a race against the clock and is rated as doubtful.
It’s been a miserable week for Valencia who conceded a last gasp goal at home to Athletic Bilbao to go crashing out of the Copa del Rey at the quarter-final stage in midweek.
They also lost to a late goal at Real Betis in the league last Sunday.
The home side will be missing Cristian Rivero (suspended) and Mouctar Diakhaby (hamstring) this weekend, while Thierry Correia (hamstring) faces a late fitness test.
Carlos Corberan’s side, though, have won two of their last three league games – results which have moved them out of the bottom three – and have picked up 17 points from their 11 home league matches this season. Granted, they are welcoming visitors with the second-best away record in the division, with Real securing 24 points from 11 games.
It’s a quarter of a century since these two sides contested the 2000 Champions League Final (won by Real) and Valencia, who also reached the showpiece the following year (won by Bayern Munich on penalties), have fallen on tough times in more recent times.
Yet with a passionate home fan base behind them, they can make life uncomfortable for any of the big boys and it will be interesting to see if Argentine veteran midfielder Guido Rodriguez, who has joined until the summer on a free transfer from West Ham, is handed his first league start.
History
Two of the oldest clubs in the Spanish top-flight, they have played each other in the league on 176 occasions. Real have won 95, Valencia 48 and the remaining 39 have ended in draws.
This meeting last season was close as Real edged to a 2-1 success, courtesy of late goals from Luka Modric and Bellingham in the fifth minute of stoppage time to break the hearts of the home side who had taken a first half lead through Hugo Duro, once of Real.
However, Valencia gained revenge in the reverse clash at Bernabeu last April with Duro hitting a last-gasp winner, as Los Che ran out 2-1 winners in the Spanish capital.
Their meeting earlier this term resulted in a 4-0 home romp when a double from Mbappe (one penalty), one from Bellingham and one from Alvaro Carreras.
Valencia have won just two of their last 11 meetings in all competitions.
Betting Tip
Our SBOTOP La Liga 2026 betting odds all lean towards an emphatic away win.
Real are priced 1X2 @ 1.53 and Asian Handicap -1.25 @ 2.28 in contrast to Valencia who are on offer 1X2 @ 4.96 and Asian Handicap +0.75 @ 2.23.
The draw will pay out @ 4.05.
A repeat of this meeting last term will earn you a pay day @ 7.30 with Correct Score 1-2 – and that is what I’m going to opt for. While I’ve considered (and been tempted by) both total goal 2-3 @ 2.11, 4-6 @ 2.70, my ** prediction is Correct Score 1-2 @ 7.30.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT)
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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